Recent examples of mesoscale numerical forecasts of severe weather events along the east coast

Mesoscale numerical forecasts utilizing the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) are documented for two East Coast severe weather events. The two events are the thunderstorm and heavy snow bursts in the Washington, D.C. - Baltimore, MD region on 8 March 1984 and the devastating tornado outbreak across North and South Carolina on 28 March 1984. The forecasts are presented to demonstrate the ability of the model to simulate dynamical interactions and diabatic processes and to note some of the problems encountered when using mesoscale models for day-to-day forecasting

Development of a severe local storm prediction system: A 60-day test of a mesoscale primitive equation model

The progress and problems associated with the dynamical forecast system which was developed to predict severe storms are examined. The meteorological problem of severe convective storm forecasting is reviewed. The cascade hypothesis which forms the theoretical core of the nested grid dynamical numerical modelling system is described. The dynamical and numerical structure of the model used during the 1978 test period is presented and a preliminary description of a proposed multigrid system for future experiments and tests is provided. Six cases from the spring of 1978 are discussed to illustrate the model's performance and its problems. Potential solutions to the problems are examined

Shear wave structure of a transect of the Los Angeles basin from multimode surface waves and H/V spectral ratio analysis

We use broad-band stations of the ‘Los Angeles Syncline Seismic Interferometry Experiment’ (LASSIE) to perform a joint inversion of the Horizontal to Vertical spectral ratios (H/V) and multimode dispersion curves (phase and group velocity) for both Rayleigh and Love waves at each station of a dense line of sensors. The H/V of the autocorrelated signal at a seismic station is proportional to the ratio of the imaginary parts of the Green’s function. The presence of low-frequency peaks (∼0.2 Hz) in H/V allows us to constrain the structure of the basin with high confidence to a depth of 6 km. The velocity models we obtain are broadly consistent with the SCEC CVM-H community model and agree well with known geological features. Because our approach differs substantially from previous modelling of crustal velocities in southern California, this research validates both the utility of the diffuse field H/V measurements for deep structural characterization and the predictive value of the CVM-H community velocity model in the Los Angeles region. We also analyse a lower frequency peak (∼0.03 Hz) in H/V and suggest it could be the signature of the Moho. Finally, we show that the independent comparison of the H and V components with their corresponding theoretical counterparts gives information about the degree of diffusivity of the ambient seismic field

Cornea organoids from human induced pluripotent stem cells.

The cornea is the transparent outermost surface of the eye, consisting of a stratified epithelium, a collagenous stroma and an innermost single-cell layered endothelium and providing 2/3 of the refractive power of the eye. Multiple diseases of the cornea arise from genetic defects where the ultimate phenotype can be influenced by cross talk between the cell types and the extracellular matrix. Cell culture modeling of diseases can benefit from cornea organoids that include multiple corneal cell types and extracellular matrices. Here we present human iPS cell-derived organoids through sequential rounds of differentiation programs. These organoids share features of the developing cornea, harboring three distinct cell types with expression of key epithelial, stromal and endothelial cell markers. Cornea organoid cultures provide a powerful 3D model system for investigating corneal developmental processes and their disruptions in diseased conditions

A discussion about the role of the shortwave schemes on real WRF-ARW simulations. Two case studies: cloudless and cloudy sky

A wide range of approaches for radiative transfer computations leads to several parameterizations. Differences in these approximations bring about distinct results for the radiative fluxes,even under the same atmospheric conditions. Since the transfer of solar and terrestrial radiationrepresents the primordial physical process that shapes the atmospheric circulation, these deviations must have an impact on the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model performance. In this paper, an analysis of the role of shortwave schemes on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model is presented. The study compares the effect of four parameterizations(Dudhia, New Goddard, CAM and RRTMG) in two cases: i) cloudless and ii) cloudy sky situations for a domain defined over Catalonia (northeast of the Iberian Peninsula). We analyze thedirect and the indirect feedback between the dynamical aspects and the physical parameterizations driven by changes in the radiative transfer equation computation. The cumulative effect ofthese variations are studied through three simulation windows: current day (0-23 h), day-ahead(24-47 h) and two days ahead (48-71 h). These analyses are focused on several NWP model fields. From the most directly related toshortwave schemes such as global horizontal irradiance or the heating rate profile, to apparently secondary outcomes such as wind speed or cloud composition among others. The differences observed between model runs using different solar parameterizations increase with the simulation horizon, being more important in the cloudy scenario than in the cloudless sky

Photoreceptor Outer Segment-like Structures in Long-Term 3D Retinas from Human Pluripotent Stem Cells.

The retinal degenerative diseases, which together constitute a leading cause of hereditary blindness worldwide, are largely untreatable. Development of reliable methods to culture complex retinal tissues from human pluripotent stem cells (hPSCs) could offer a means to study human retinal development, provide a platform to investigate the mechanisms of retinal degeneration and screen for neuroprotective compounds, and provide the basis for cell-based therapeutic strategies. In this study, we describe an in vitro method by which hPSCs can be differentiated into 3D retinas with at least some important features reminiscent of a mature retina, including exuberant outgrowth of outer segment-like structures and synaptic ribbons, photoreceptor neurotransmitter expression, and membrane conductances and synaptic vesicle release properties consistent with possible photoreceptor synaptic function. The advanced outer segment-like structures reported here support the notion that 3D retina cups could serve as a model for studying mature photoreceptor development and allow for more robust modeling of retinal degenerative disease in vitro

The effects of heuristics and apophenia on probabilistic choice

Given a repeated choice between two or more options with independent and identically distributed reward probabilities, overall pay-offs can be maximized by the exclusive selection of the option with the greatest likelihood of reward. The tendency to match response proportions to reward contingencies is suboptimal. nevertheless, this behaviour is well documented. A number of explanatory accounts have been proposed for probability matching. These include failed pattern matching, driven by apophenia, and a heuristic-driven response that can be overruled with sufficient deliberation. We report two experiments that were designed to test the relative effects on choice behaviour of both an intuitive versus strategic approach to the task and belief that there was a predictable pattern in the reward sequence, through a combination of both direct experimental manipulation and post-experimental self-report. Mediation analysis was used to model the pathways of effects. Neither of two attempted experimental manipulations of apophenia, nor self-reported levels of apophenia, had a significant effect on proportions of maximizing choices. However, the use of strategy over intuition proved a consistent predictor of maximizing, across all experimental conditions. A parallel analysis was conducted to assess the effect of controlling for individual variance in perceptions of reward contingencies. Although this analysis suggested that apophenia did increase probability matching in the standard task preparation, this effect was found to result from an unforeseen relationship between self-reported apophenia and perceived reward probabilities. A Win-stay Lose-shift (WSLS) analysis indicated no reliable relationship between WSLS and either intuition or strategy use

Changes in Health Behaviors and Outcomes Following Graduation from Higher Education

International Journal of Exercise Science 13(5): 131-139, 2020. The purpose of this study was to examine changes in health behaviors and outcomes of higher education (college) students following graduation. Undergraduate students (n= 206) enrolled at a large, northeastern United States university in general education health and wellness courses were assessed pre and post-graduation. Participants self-reported their demographics, physical activity behaviors, dietary behaviors, sleep, and stress pre and post-graduation via an online survey. Paired sample t-tests examined changes health behaviors pre and post-graduation. Following graduation, fruit and vegetable consumption increased significantly, moderate physical activity declined significantly, and both vigorous physical activity and energy expenditure, as well as weight remained stable. There was a significant reduction in stress, for men but not women, and, an increase in restful nights of sleep among women but not men. College students tended to maintain the seemingly healthy lifestyles they had as students during the period immediately following graduation. Findings highlight the value of general health and wellness courses within college given vigorous physical activity and energy expenditure did not decline following graduation

Model studies on the role of moist convection as a mechanism for interaction between the mesoscales

A three year research effort is described which had as its goal the development of techniques to improve the numerical prediction of cumulus convection on the meso-beta and meso-gamma scales. Two MESO models are used, the MASS (mesoscale) and TASS (cloud scale) models. The primary meteorological situation studied is the 28-29 Jun. 1986 Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment (COHMEX) study area on a day with relatively weak large scale forcing. The problem of determining where and when convection should be initiated is considered to be a major problem of current approaches. Assimilation of moisture data from satellite, radar, and surface data is shown to significantly improve mesoscale simulations. The TASS model is shown to reproduce some observed mesoscale features when initialized with 3-D observational data. Convection evolution studies center on comparison of the Kuo and Fritsch-Chappell cumulus parameterization schemes to each other, and to cloud model results. The Fritsch-Chappell scheme is found to be superior at about 30 km resolution, while the Kuo scheme does surprisingly well in simulating convection down to 10 km in cases where convergence features are well-resolved by the model grid. Results from MASS-TASS interaction experiments are presented and discussed. A discussion of the future of convective simulation is given, with the conclusion that significant progress is possible on several fronts in the next few years

Spatial Heterogeneity Can Lead to Substantial Local Variations in COVID-19 Timing and Severity

Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion models based on known spatial features of interpersonal networks, most particularly the presence of a long-tailed but monotone decline in the probability of interaction with distance, on disease diffusion. Based on simulations of unrestricted COVID-19 diffusion in 19 U.S cities, we conclude that heterogeneity in population distribution can have large impacts on local pandemic timing and severity, even when aggregate behavior at larger scales mirrors a classic SIR-like pattern. Impacts observed include severe local outbreaks with long lag time relative to the aggregate infection curve, and the presence of numerous areas whose disease trajectories correlate poorly with those of neighboring areas. A simple catchment model for hospital demand illustrates potential implications for health care utilization, with substantial disparities in the timing and extremity of impacts even without distancing interventions. Likewise, analysis of social exposure to others who are morbid or deceased shows considerable variation in how the epidemic can appear to individuals on the ground, potentially affecting risk assessment and compliance with mitigation measures. These results demonstrate the potential for spatial network structure to generate highly non-uniform diffusion behavior even at the scale of cities, and suggest the importance of incorporating such structure when designing models to inform healthcare planning, predict community outcomes, or identify potential disparities